招商宏观张静静：2023、2024新旧能源是最佳资产，中国股债长期大概率双牛

东湖塘 2024-07-07 18:00:54 47

9月23日，由新浪财经主办，证券日报作为战略合作媒体，合力打造的2022新浪财经海外投资峰会盛大开幕，本次论坛有幸邀请到纳斯达克、新交所、香港贸发局等机构的代表致辞，并邀请了包括沈明高、肖耿、韩竹、陶冬、姚远、张忆东、梁文涛、黄亮等海内外知名学者、经济学家等共聚于此，眼观全球局势，紧扣市场脉搏，探讨大湾区机遇，碰撞智慧火花，为投资者奉上了一场财富盛宴。

宏观首席分析师（董事）张静静发表主旨演讲，短期可能因为人民币汇率有一定的贬值压力，再加上短期中美利差还是在倒挂加剧，A债肯定会略弱，A股会不会略强呢？有可能，至少短期之内还有可能风格切换。比如按揭利率下调很多，也不断地降息，理论上地产应该是有短期的回暖。

至于中期，因为我们2024、2025年要跨过中等收入国家陷阱，在“十四五”所有的新旧能源都是享受政策红利的，特别是新能源是享受政策红利的领域，理论上在“十四五”后面的这两三年，特别是到2023、2024年，新旧能源还应该是最佳资产。

从长期来讲，中国股债大概率双牛。2024年我们会跨过中等收入国家陷阱，成为一个高收入国家，根据当年日本和韩国，但凡跨过了这个陷阱，成为一个高收入国家或地区，随后的5到10年，本土的权益资产就会跑赢全球，就成为全球的α。而根据日本和美国的经验，但凡地产在金融派生的作用变弱以后，中央财政就会更加积极有为，货币政策也会配合财政来相对地宽松。所以，有可能会形成一个股债双牛。她强调，这是个预期，还要在这个过程当中去不断地小心求证。

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